Hypothetical M6.5 event — consequence zones

Inputs & what-if

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Radial Hazard Consequence Zones

Environmental / public-safety consequence modelling

Large-scale hazards are modelled at a high level as energy-scaled concentric consequence zones expanding over time — suitable for public-safety understanding, not engineering prediction.

Equations

• R_zone = k_zone · E^(1/3) (cube-root energy scaling)
• E = 4.184e9 · yield_equivalent_tonnes
• Wave front r(t) = min(R_max, c·t)

Validity range

Order-of-magnitude screening for surface-level hazards; not for operational planning.

Limitations

• High-level educational consequence visualisation only — not a validated hazard model.
• Population, building stock and emergency-response capacity are not modelled.
• Real events are strongly modified by terrain, geology, construction quality and weather.

Sensitivity

Effect of a +10% change on Severe effects radius

Timeline

• 0.00 sEvent initiation
• 0.63 sSevere zone boundary reached (2.22 km)
• 1.29 sModerate zone boundary reached (4.53 km)
• 2.59 sLight-effect boundary reached (9.06 km)

External data & sources

• M6.5 radiated-energy equivalentinferred · low

  ~1.4 Mt TNT equivalent (order of magnitude)

  Gutenberg–Richter energy-magnitude relation, log E = 1.5M + 4.8 · retrieved 1970-01-01

• Crustal S-wave propagation speedreported · medium

  ≈3.5 km/s

  Standard continental crust seismic velocity ranges · retrieved 1970-01-01

Assumptions

• Flat, uniform terrain
• Isotropic propagation
• No building-stock or population modelling
• Flat, uniform terrain with no shielding from buildings or topography.
• Isotropic (perfectly circular) propagation.
• Standard atmospheric conditions; no wind-driven asymmetry.

Results

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Scientific integrity

Results are computed by an explicit, deterministic model integrated in SI units. Values are labelled as user input, external data, assumption, estimate or calculated result. Simplified models are educational approximations, not engineering-grade predictions.